São Paulo – enger air traffic in the Middle East is expected to grow by an average of 4.4% annually over the next 20 years, suring the global average of 3.9%. The region will also receive 4% of all jets delivered by 2044, totaling 350 units, and 1.1% of turboprops, with 20 aircraft. These figures come from the Market Outlook 2025 report released by Brazil’s Embraer on Thursday (12).
The company’s analysis covers all world regions and forecasts 10,500 new jet and turboprop orders globally over 20 years. Most—8,720 units—will be jets, with 1,780 turboprops. Embraer estimates the market value of these new deliveries at US$ 680 billion. enger traffic growth, measured by revenue enger kilometers (RPK), is expected to be led by China with an annual rate of 5.7%.
Regarding the Middle East, Embraer says airlines in the region are well positioned to grow thanks to improved intraregional connectivity, with tourism driving this growth through stronger domestic and regional networks. The company believes that greater fleet versatility will be essential for the region to operate short- and medium-haul routes more efficiently.
According to the analysis, Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have established themselves as global air transit hubs, connecting East and West. Market Outlook 2025 indicates that nearly 50% of all flights in the region depart from just five cities. “By focusing more on intraregional connectivity and developing domestic routes, airlines can unlock growth opportunities and contribute more directly to national economic goals,” reads the report.
The analysis highlights that local governments are investing in tourism to diversify their economies, and that the Middle East led the global post-pandemic tourism recovery, with international arrivals growing 132% in 2024 compared to 2019. Embraer cites religious, luxury, sports, adventure, and ecotourism as key drivers, along with visa facilitation. However, it notes that 63% of intraregional markets have low density, with fewer than 200 engers daily. “Facilitating access to these prosperous tourist areas with more flights could increase intraregional travel,” the report goes on.
The right aircraft
The Market Outlook 2025 says that aircraft size is crucial for the economic and operational viability of these routes. “Although large narrow-body aircraft dominate airline fleets, many intraregional markets would be served more efficiently by smaller aircraft,” the report says. Embraer suggests using small narrow-body aircraft to better match supply with demand, open new markets, and increase flight frequency between secondary cities that are currently underserved or lack air service.
Read more:
Embraer reports record orders
Translated by Guilherme Miranda
